Reverse epidemiology of elevated blood pressure among chronic hemodialysis black patients with stroke: a historical cohort study

BACKGROUND Stroke is the third leading cause of cardiovascular mortality in dialysis patients. The objective of this study was to assess the extent of stroke in chronic hemodialysis patients. METHODS Historical cohort of patients enrolled in two hemodialysis (HD) centers from January 1, 2010 to December 31, 2011, including 191 patients (mean age 52 years, 68% men). Incidence curves and survival time analysis between the first day of HD and the end of the study were described by the Kaplan-Meier method. Independent stroke predictors were identified by multiple logistic regression analysis. P < 0.05 defined the level of statistical significance. RESULTS 12 incident stroke were recorded during the study period, with 1622.1 person-months (PM), a stroke incidence rate of 7.4 cases per 1000 PM (95% CI = 7.35-7.44) at the point date. The incidence of stroke at 6 months, 12 months and 24 months was 9.8%, 11.9% and 13%, respectively. Only the absence of arterial hypertension (RR = 5.7, 95% CI: 1.52-21.42) emerged as an independent determinant of stroke. CONCLUSION The high incidence of stroke in Kinshasa HD centers is partially explained by reverse epidemiology. Efforts must be made to understand this phenomenon in order to reduce its impact.